The history of discovery is well documented and, obviously, more oil cannot be produced than is discovered. US mainland (48 states) oil discoveries peaked in 1930, 40 years before production peaked. World oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s and new discoveries are gradually getting fewer and smaller. New fields will, of course, be found and each will grab the headlines for a time. But they cannot change the overall pattern.
The total amount of conventional oil in the world (already used, reserves and yet-to-find) has been about 2,000 Gb (billion barrels) and about half has been extracted. We are now on a plateau where the amount of oil that can be produced is not much more than the amount in demand. High oil prices have always brought recession so the world may dip in and out of recession for a few years. But, within a decade, the amount of oil that can be produced will drop, never to recover, and this could trigger a global recession or depression.
For a hundred years the global economy has grown, serviced by oil. The world economy has determined how much oil is produced. This is about to go into reverse. Oil will determine the global economy unless or until renewable sources can provide adequate energy. Everything - trade, manufacturing, services, exchange - will be measured not by money but by its use of energy. Energy will become the new currency.
